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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still